A machine-learning model built by DraftKings in 2023 scored customers by how much money they were expected to lose after receiving a free bet or bonus, according to a New York Times investigation. The same data infrastructure that powered that model could reportedly have been used to identify customers at risk of gambling harm, but former employees told the Times that effort was sidelined. This type of covert digital profiling echoes concerns raised by a recent surveillance app built to target specific user populations.
How the Model Works
The model examined play frequency, account balances, loss-to-wager ratios, and a separate estimate of whether a user was likely to stop gambling altogether, according to the Times. A higher score meant a customer was predicted to generate more revenue per promotional dollar spent.
Jayden Butts, a former DraftKings data analyst, described the underlying logic to the Times: “We are looking for traits and features that we can target that indicate a good investment.”
The best investment would be a problem gambler.
Jayden Butts, former DraftKings data analyst, to The New York Times
DraftKings executives said data science and analytics improved promotion-driven sportsbook margins by 13% in 2025, and that AI helped personalize hundreds of millions of dollars in promotional spending, according to the Times.
What Got Built vs. What Got Shelved
Former employees told the Times that a separate initiative to build risk scores identifying customers with potential gambling problems was shelved. The infrastructure to look in both directions reportedly existed; only one model was finished. This pattern of secretly tracking users without their awareness has drawn scrutiny across multiple industries.
DraftKings’s chief responsible gaming officer, Lori Kalani, told the Times that the company monitors customers for risky behavior. She also said DraftKings declined to deploy risk-prediction technology because it was not sufficiently evidence-based.
The company publicly highlights several responsible-gaming commitments, including a collaboration with Mindway AI’s Gamalyze tool, expanded customer education resources, and a partnership with IC360 for integrity and compliance monitoring. Whether those tools address the specific gap described by former employees, the ability to proactively score and protect users at elevated risk, remains unclear based on available reporting.
DraftKings Disputes the Characterization
DraftKings told the Times it “rejects any implication” that its marketing unfairly targets customers. Its stated position is that promotions go to users who show sustained, engaged platform use, not users ranked by how much they lose.
Targeting engaged users and targeting users predicted to lose the most can overlap significantly, depending on how the model weighs its variables. The Times reporting does not resolve whether those two populations are effectively the same group in practice.
What Comes Next
If the Times reporting holds, lawmakers and gambling regulators will have something more specific than general industry concern. The free bet arriving in your inbox may reflect a data-driven judgment about your likelihood of losing, not a reward for your loyalty.
