The US PC market just posted its ugliest quarter since late 2023, and Dell came out on top. Omdia’s Q1 2026 data shows US PC shipments fell 7% year-over-year to 15.8 million units — the steepest annual decline since Q3 2023. Dell didn’t win by surging ahead. It won by growing 1.1% while HP’s shipments cratered 21.6%. That’s not a coronation. It’s a battlefield promotion.
How Dell Took the Crown
The vendor scoreboard reveals a market where standing still counts as victory.
Here’s how the top five shook out in Q1 2026, according to Omdia:
- Dell: 25.0% US share, +1.1% shipment growth
- HP: 20.5% share, down 21.6% in shipments
- Lenovo: 20.0% share, +1.2% growth
- Apple: 16.9% share, down just 1.6% (MacBook business adoption reached 15.3%)
- Acer and smaller OEMs: down 5.4% and 13.1%, respectively
Just last year, HP held 25.3% of the US market versus Dell’s 22.8%. That gap didn’t just close — it flipped. Dell’s scale reportedly gives it better leverage on constrained component allocation. HP now faces a likely product and pricing strategy reset, particularly across entry-level and mid-range lineups where margins have been squeezed hardest. Smaller OEMs fared worst of all, lacking the procurement leverage to navigate tightening memory and storage supply.
“While average selling prices rose just 4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, Omdia expects growth to reach 12% in Q2 and exceed 12% in the second half of 2026 as supply-side headwinds continue to materialize,” said Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Omdia.
Behind every price increase sits the same culprit: AI infrastructure devouring memory and storage supply. DRAM and NAND are being redirected to AI servers at scale, pushing mainstream PC component costs up 40–70% since early 2025, with Omdia projecting a further 60% increase. Consumers buying a new laptop this year are, in effect, paying too much — subsidizing someone else’s data center buildout.
The Budget PC Is Nearly Gone
Sub-$500 machines are disappearing like the dollar menu — technically listed, practically extinct.
Shopping on a tight budget? The options are thinning fast. Sub-$500 PC shipments collapsed 18.7% in the US last quarter — nearly triple the overall market decline. Globally, Omdia forecasts that segment dropping 28% for full-year 2026, to roughly 62.1 million units. Schools, government agencies, and first-time buyers are staring down a rapidly shrinking aisle.
“The consumer segment declined 9.5% year-over-year, worse than the overall market, as many consumers delayed purchase decisions,” noted Scott Braverman, Senior Analyst at Omdia. Commercial shipments held up somewhat better, declining 5.0%, supported by ongoing Windows 11 refresh cycles.
Omdia projects the full-year US market will contract 13–14%, landing around 61 million units — down from roughly 71.5 million in 2025. A meaningful recovery is projected for 2027, particularly for education and government segments once pricing stabilizes. Near-term computer problems aside, price relief looks unlikely — average selling prices are heading higher, not lower.
