A 3.1% global sales increase sounds steady until you ask where it came from. Counterpoint Research tracked iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max sales during the first three weeks after launch and compared them with the equivalent window for the iPhone 17 Pro series, finding growth concentrated in one market and declines in two others.
Where the Growth Actually Came From
China carried most of the launch, with a 29% year-over-year surge that accounts for the bulk of the global figure.
Sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series rose 29% year over year in China, according to Counterpoint Research, making it the dominant contributor to that 3.1% headline number. Two factors drove that performance, per Counterpoint: Apple had better early inventory in China than during the iPhone 17 Pro launch window, and competing Chinese Android flagships raised their own prices, narrowing the premium gap.
Strip China out entirely, and the global growth figure shrinks to something considerably weaker. Counterpoint explicitly said growth excluding China would have been far smaller, though it did not publish the adjusted percentage.
Where It Slipped
US sales fell 4% and Japan dropped 27%, with exchange-rate effects compounding price increases in the Japanese market.
US sales declined 4% year over year during the same period, according to Reuters, citing Counterpoint data. Japan fell harder, posting a 27% drop, which Counterpoint attributed in part to exchange-rate effects that amplified the price increases buyers faced.
One important caveat: Counterpoint did not release total unit figures in the publicly available summary, so none of these percentages can be converted into specific device counts using the available information. Readers tracking Apple’s volume trajectory will need to wait for more complete data.
The Pro Max Is Still Dominant, Just Slightly Less So
The Pro Max held 56% of Pro-series sales, down one point from the prior year, with the smaller Pro gaining ground in emerging markets.
The iPhone 18 Pro Max accounted for 56% of Pro-series sales during the period, down one point from the 57% share recorded for the iPhone 17 Pro Max during its equivalent window, according to Reuters. Counterpoint linked the small shift to stronger demand for the smaller Pro model in markets including India and Southeast Asia.
What the Next Few Weeks Will Determine
The durability of China’s sales surge and the iPhone Duo’s effect on Pro Max demand are the two variables Counterpoint flagged as most consequential.
Sujeong Lim, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, put the central question plainly, as reported by 9to5Mac: “Whether China’s outperformance reflects durable demand or front-loaded buying will become clearer in the coming weeks.” Lim also identified the iPhone Duo as a variable worth watching, specifically whether it draws new buyers into the Pro tier or pulls demand away from the Pro Max. The Duo launched after the three-week window Counterpoint analyzed, so its effect does not appear in these figures.
The Honest Read on These Numbers
The data neither confirms collapsing demand nor broad-based momentum, leaving the next few weeks as the real test.
Global sales did beat the prior year’s comparable period, which counters any narrative of an outright early demand collapse. Two of Apple’s most established markets declined, however, and the global positive rests heavily on conditions in China that may or may not hold. The next several weeks of sales data will show whether China’s surge has legs and whether the US and Japan recover or continue sliding.
