Reports of Apple reducing component orders at suppliers drew quick concern. According to secondary reporting citing a JPMorgan note, the actual demand picture for the iPhone 18 Pro lineup is modestly stronger than it was for the iPhone 17 Pro models at the same point last year, complicating the simpler “weak demand” narrative that supply-chain headlines suggested.
What the Data Actually Shows
Delivery times in the US and Europe are holding firm or running ahead of last year’s pace.
JPMorgan tracked delivery estimates across major markets and found that the United States and Europe were broadly in line with, or stronger than, the equivalent window during the iPhone 17 cycle. Analysts described the current pace of Pro-series demand as exceeding the prior-year cycle, while flagging third-week delivery trends as the next meaningful test.
China Is the Outlier
Chinese delivery times started well below last year but closed the gap faster than expected.
In the first week, China delivery estimates came in at 13 days for the iPhone 18 Pro and 21 days for the Pro Max. Both iPhone 17 Pro models clocked 30 days at the same point a year earlier.
By the second week, estimates climbed to 27 days and 33 days for the iPhone 18 models. The iPhone 17 Pro generation posted 30 and 37 days over the same window, leaving China still below last year but with a materially narrower gap than the pre-order records set by competing devices.
Why Component Cuts Don’t Necessarily Signal Weak Demand
Apple’s split launch schedule makes year-over-year comparisons harder to read than usual.
JPMorgan described the reported production reductions as consistent with Apple’s standard post-launch adjustment pattern. The comparison is further complicated by Apple’s decision to separate the Pro launch from the standard iPhone 18, which is expected to arrive early next year alongside the company’s first foldable device, reportedly called the iPhone Duo.
According to reports citing the JPMorgan note, the prior-generation iPhone 17 Pro models were reportedly still selling through third-party channels even after Apple removed them from its main online store. That continued availability introduces another variable into any straightforward demand comparison.
Investment Signal
JPMorgan raised its Apple price target to $360 and kept its Overweight rating intact.
Despite uncertainty around demand signals and supply constraints, JPMorgan lifted its Apple price target from $340 to $360. The bank projected that the delayed standard iPhone 18 could contribute to roughly a 2% year-over-year decline in iPhone revenue, according to reports citing the note.
The iPhone Duo foldable, expected to launch alongside the standard model, is forecast to sell approximately 8.5 million units before year-end. That figure, if realized, could offset a portion of the revenue pressure tied to the staggered schedule. Buyers planning ahead may also want to explore iPhone accessories to complement their new device.
What to Watch Next
Third-week delivery data will matter more than any single component-order report.
The available evidence does not support a straightforward demand-collapse story, but it does not close the case either. Third-week delivery trends, subsequent production-plan revisions, and early reception of the standard iPhone 18 and iPhone Duo will provide a clearer picture. The component-cut headlines have not resolved the question on their own.
