Apple’s first foldable iPhone is expected to immediately reshape the competitive landscape. TrendForce projects the iPhone Duo will ship approximately 5 million units in 2026, securing a 24.8% share of the global foldable smartphone market and positioning Apple as the second-largest foldable brand behind Samsung.
The timing is notable. Apple enters a category where established Android players are losing ground, making the Duo’s debut less a product story and more a structural one.
A Market in Restructuring
The foldable segment is technically growing in 2026, but only because Apple showed up.
Total global foldable shipments in 2026 are projected at approximately 20.2 million units, a 0.5% year-over-year increase, according to TrendForce. Strip Apple out of that number and the picture changes sharply: Android foldable shipments are forecast to fall more than 20% year-over-year, landing at roughly 15.2 million units.
Sharp increases in component costs are the primary driver of that contraction, per TrendForce’s analysis. Rising prices across displays, memory, and camera modules are squeezing margins and suppressing volume across established Android manufacturers.
2026 can be a restructuring year for the foldable phone market. iPhone Duo’s strong demand can fill the market gap, followed by other brands’ sales.
TrendForce, as reported by Huawei Central
Three Brands, One Market
Samsung leads, but Apple and Huawei are projected to share second place in a newly concentrated competitive field.
Samsung is projected to hold the top position with approximately 7.1 million foldable units shipped and a 35.1% market share in 2026, according to TrendForce data cited by GSMArena. The Galaxy Z series remains the category’s reference point after years of iterative refinement.
Apple and Huawei are each projected to follow at approximately 5 million units and 24.8% share, effectively tying for second place. Devices expected to anchor that volume include Huawei’s Mate XT 2 and Pura X Max alongside the iPhone Duo, according to Huawei Central’s coverage of TrendForce’s findings.
TrendForce states the competitive picture plainly: “TrendForce estimates that iPhone Duo shipments will reach approximately 5 million units in 2026, giving Apple a 24.8% share of the foldable smartphone market and making it the second-largest brand behind Samsung.” (TrendForce press release, via PR Newswire and Yahoo Finance)
That three-way split between Samsung, Apple, and Huawei represents a notable concentration of market power. Smaller players are already struggling under the weight of rising component costs.
The iPhone Duo arrives with notable hardware trade-offs. Apple reportedly omitted a periscope telephoto camera to minimize device thickness, a constraint driven by the physical demands of foldable hinges and dual display assemblies. In its place, the Duo uses a 48 MP main camera offering 2x optical-quality zoom through high-resolution cropping and lens design, according to TrendForce’s analysis as reported by 9to5Mac.
Face ID is also absent. A side-mounted Touch ID sensor replaces it, another decision shaped by internal space limitations. TrendForce frames these choices as representative of the persistent trade-offs foldable manufacturers face between thickness, camera capability, biometrics, and battery capacity.
The Software Question Foldables Have Yet to Answer
Hardware specifications will determine early reviews, but TrendForce argues the category’s future depends on AI and software integration.
TrendForce argues that “deeper integration of AI and software with the larger foldable display” could reposition foldables from a hardware novelty into a functional new interface layer for AI-driven applications. Apple’s tight hardware-software integration gives it a credible foundation to pursue that direction, though whether the Duo’s software experience at launch fully exploits the form factor remains to be seen.
Component cost pressures also represent a structural risk extending to Apple’s own pricing and margins. TrendForce’s broader component analysis flags this concern explicitly for the iPhone 18 lineup.
What the forecast ultimately describes is a category at a crossroads. Android foldable shipments are contracting under economic pressure, and Apple’s projected entry is the primary reason total market volume does not fall outright.
A three-way competitive structure dominated by Samsung, Apple, and Huawei could accelerate innovation in hinge durability, display longevity, and AI-native software. Alternatively, it could consolidate volume at the premium tier while smaller manufacturers exit quietly.
The foldable market’s next chapter will likely be shaped by software ecosystems and AI capability as much as by materials and engineering. Whether the iPhone Duo convinces mainstream premium buyers to embrace the form factor remains an open question. That answer depends on execution TrendForce’s models cannot yet measure.
