The iPhone Ultra is reportedly eSIM-only. That single design decision — reasonable everywhere Apple’s core launch markets have mature eSIM infrastructure — becomes a genuine barrier in mainland China, where eSIM adoption significantly lags behind the U.S. and Europe. Weibo leaker Instant Digital posted the China delay claim on September 8, one day before Apple’s expected event, citing limited initial inventory and regional allocation as the driving factors. According to 9to5Mac’s reading of the leak, eSIM readiness is the primary structural reason China may trail the first wave.
Apple reportedly ordered around 10 million units of the Ultra but was producing only a few hundred per day in late August, per a Japanese report cited by MacRumors. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo compares the situation to the iPhone X: announced alongside other models, pre-orders pushed into Q4. The Ultra’s rumored specs make this the most complex iPhone Apple has ever tried to ship at scale:
- 5.5-inch cover screen
- 7.8-inch inner display
- Reportedly as thin as 4.5mm when unfolded
- Priced somewhere between $2,000 and $2,500
Australian outlet ChannelNews reported that carriers there already expect the Ultra to be a “no show” at the iPhone 18 Pro launch, with the book-style foldable arriving two to three months later. That detail alone suggests this isn’t purely a China story — it’s a global sequencing story that China happens to headline.
Gurman Says Relax. Kuo Isn’t So Sure.
The two most-watched Apple analysts are reading the same supply chain data and reaching very different conclusions.
Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman pushes back hard on the delay narrative “I would be very surprised if the foldable phone did not come out at the same time as the new Pro phones, or very close to it,” he said, explicitly rejecting talk of “late October, November launch, massive delays, supply chain issues.” He never directly contradicts the specific claim that China could trail the U.S. by weeks or months, though. That distinction matters more than it might first appear.
Apple already ran a similar playbook with Vision Pro: a U.S.-first launch, with other countries waiting several months for availability. A foldable starting above $2,000, with complex hinge engineering and constrained early production, is precisely the profile of product Apple has historically staged regionally. Supply-chain reporting from China Securities Journal, relayed via DigiTimes, still supports a September debut without broad global delay — meaning the core timeline reportedly remains intact, even if the regional sequencing does not.
What This Means at Launch
First-wave access isn’t the guaranteed advantage it looks like on paper.
Early adopters in first-wave markets face limited stock regardless — reportedly a few hundred units per day in late August is not a number that satisfies global demand for a device this anticipated. The practical reality is that moving fast may still mean waiting months for fulfillment.
Buyers in China, meanwhile, may ultimately receive a unit that has had more time in the field. Apple will reportedly have stress-tested the hinge and worked through early display quality concerns before those markets come online. Being second in the queue, frustrating as it sounds, occasionally turns out to be the smarter position. Whether that’s any comfort to the Chinese Apple fans already eyeing import options is another matter entirely.
