The crypto market just witnessed something unprecedented: the market’s most committed believers have started jumping ship. Long-term Bitcoin holders—those legendary “diamond hands” who supposedly never sell—have dumped over 400,000 BTC worth roughly $45 billion in recent weeks. These aren’t panicked retail traders getting liquidated during a Friday night futures squeeze. These are the people who held through multiple 80% crashes and preached “HODL” like gospel.
When Believers Become Sellers
Bitcoin has plunged from October highs above $125,000 to trade as low as $104,000, marking its first negative October since 2018. The seven-year “Uptober” winning streak is dead. But here’s what makes this correction different: it’s driven by spot transactions, not the typical derivatives casino that usually creates these meltdowns. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged over $1.15 billion in a single week as institutional money fled faster than concert-goers when the headliner cancels.
Supply Meets Absent Demand
According to analyst Vetle Lunde, over 319,000 Bitcoin has been “reactivated” in the past month, mainly from coins held six to twelve months—classic profit-taking territory. The problem isn’t just the selling; it’s who’s not buying. Smaller whales that typically absorb this supply have gone quiet, leaving the market structurally unbalanced like a seesaw with only one kid.
Analysts See Further Pain Ahead
Markus Thielen from 10x Research warns this isn’t a quick dip to buy. “We broke through some on-chain indicators—people are underwater, they need to close their positions,” he notes, projecting the unwind could “last well into next spring” with a worst-case target of $85,000. That’s not exactly the “number go up” narrative crypto Twitter was selling during the rally.
Options traders are already positioning for deeper drops, with put contracts targeting the $80,000 level gaining traction.
The crypto faithful always said Bitcoin would separate believers from speculators. Turns out, even the believers have their price.
