A Columbia Business School researcher examined 1.8 million actual Uber trip offers and found that estimated net earnings after fuel and maintenance range from $3.18 per working hour in Orlando to $21.87 in Boston. In six of the 16 cities analyzed, that estimated net figure falls below the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. The analysis was conducted by Len Sherman using trip-offer data collected through the GigU app between March 2025 and March 2026. Uber disputes the methodology and says its actual pay figures are substantially higher.
What the Numbers Actually Show
The starkest finding in Sherman’s analysis is the spread between Orlando and Boston: $3.18 versus $21.87 per working hour after subtracting estimated fuel and maintenance costs.
Those figures exclude vehicle depreciation, tips, bonuses, and state supplemental payments, so they do not represent a complete accounting of either costs or income. Sherman built his hourly estimates from pay per mile, typical trip distance, and average trips per hour. Those calculations covered the range of offers drivers received through GigU, including ones they declined.
Selected findings from the analysis, showing estimated net hourly pay after fuel and maintenance costs:
- Boston: $21.87 per working hour (highest in the study)
- Los Angeles: $46 per active hour gross, before expenses (Sherman notes the city benefits from state-level pay protections)
- Orlando: $3.18 per working hour (lowest in the study)
- Six of the 16 cities: estimated net pay below the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour
- Full city list studied: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, and Tampa
Massachusetts provides relevant context. The state guarantees Uber and Lyft drivers $34.48 per hour of active time for eligible rides originating there. That figure is not directly comparable to Sherman’s Boston estimate of $21.87. Sherman’s calculation accounts for operating expenses, while the state guarantee applies only to defined active time before any broader working-time calculation.
Why Cities Vary So Much
Sherman attributes the pay gap partly to local minimum-pay rules and partly to driver competition in certain markets, though those explanations reflect his interpretation of the data rather than independently established causal findings.
Cities such as Boston benefit from statewide minimum-pay protections that create a legal floor for active-trip earnings. Sherman associates lower rates in tourist-heavy markets such as Orlando and Las Vegas with higher concentrations of drivers competing for available trips.
The definition of “active time” is central to evaluating any of these numbers. Pay figures cover the period when a driver is traveling to pick up a passenger or transporting one to the destination; time spent waiting for the next request is not compensated. That distinction applies to Sherman’s estimates, to Uber’s reported figures, and to state guarantees like Massachusetts: the clock runs during the ride, not during the wait.
Uber’s Response and What It Disputes
Uber calls the analysis flawed and says its own pay figures are substantially higher, though the company did not supply the underlying calculations to support that claim. Meanwhile, developments like the driverless Tesla Robotaxi continue to reshape the broader context in which gig-economy drivers operate.
The company argues that the GigU dataset likely overrepresents lower-paying offers that drivers chose to reject, and that Sherman’s calculations omit tips, promotional payments, and minimum-pay adjustments available in states such as California and Massachusetts. Uber also challenged his assumptions about average trip length and trips completed per hour. The company said its average pay per engaged hour is more than 25% higher than Sherman’s estimates, but it did not provide its own figures for the disputed variables.
Sherman defended the approach by arguing that trip-offer data reflects what drivers actually encounter when they open the app, rather than averages derived from company records. Neither position is fully verifiable without standardized, audited payroll disclosure from the platform.
The Variables That Would Clarify the Picture
A genuinely useful comparison of driver pay across cities would require data that neither side has made fully public.
Figures that would make these estimates comparable include total logged-in time, accepted-trip rates, tips, bonuses, state adjustment payments, taxes, insurance premiums, and vehicle depreciation. Sherman included fuel and maintenance in his calculations but excluded depreciation, meaning his net figures may still overstate what some drivers take home. Until platforms report those variables consistently, any “hourly pay” figure describes a partial economic reality, and which reality that is depends on what the person doing the math chose to include , much like the broader issue of paying too much without realizing the full picture of hidden costs.
