The 2024 U.S. presidential election could have a massive impact on Bitcoin’s price, with drastically different scenarios depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges victorious, according to a new report from Bernstein. The analysts predict that a Trump win could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by the end of the year, while a Harris victory might see the cryptocurrency tumble to $30,000.
Bitcoin has faced a tough regulatory environment in recent months, with actions against major companies like Coinbase and Uniswap eroding trust and pushing the industry into partisan debates. Trump has been vocal about his support for cryptocurrencies, pledging to make the U.S. “the bitcoin and crypto capital of the world” and outlining policies such as appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair and creating a national strategic bitcoin reserve. In contrast, Harris has not addressed crypto in any of her speeches or policy statements, contributing to uncertainty about her stance on the industry.
Coindesk reports that the current prediction markets show Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin, with a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’ 47%. However, analysts caution that elections remain difficult to predict accurately, and unexpected developments could shift the odds in the coming months.
“After the last three years of regulatory purge, a positive crypto regulatory policy can spur innovation again and bring the users back to financial products on the blockchain,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.
As of September 2024, Bitcoin is trading at around $50,000, having recovered from a sharp sell-off earlier in the year per Theblock. The cryptocurrency has faced regulatory headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty but has also seen growing interest from institutional investors and mainstream corporations.
Benzinga reports that the outcome of the 2024 election could have significant long-term implications for the crypto industry. A supportive regulatory environment under a second Trump term could accelerate institutional adoption and innovation, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin to become a mainstream asset class. On the other hand, a Harris victory and a continuation of the current regulatory uncertainty could hinder the industry’s growth and keep Bitcoin on the fringes of the financial world.
Bernstein’s long-term price targets for Bitcoin are ambitious, with the analysts predicting that the cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by 2030 in a best-case scenario. However, they stress that these projections are highly dependent on the regulatory and political environment and that investors should be prepared for significant volatility along the way.
